CaspianReport

Turkey is a transcontinental power, and, while the European side of the country is secure and calm, the situation could not be more different on the Asian front. The collapse of the Sykes-Picot agreement is disintegrating the territorial borders from within and in the subsequent vacuum of power, major nations seek to carve out their own spheres of influence. All these activities, directly and indirectly, affect Turkey and determine the country’s geopolitical objectives in Asia.

For over a week, anti-government demonstrations have emerged across Iran. At this point, protests have been reported in dozens of cities, with at least 20 people confirmed dead in sporadic clashes between protestors and law enforcement units. In the Iranian capital, more than 450 people have been detained. Yet, despite the media hype, the unrest does not bear the signs of a revolution.

Negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia concerning the latter’s Renaissance Dam fell apart in November 2017 when officials from Cairo walked away from the talks. It is presumed that the parties failed to reach an agreement on the impact assessment of the project. The scale of the impasse is unique as it not only deals with the Renaissance Dam but also sets a legal precedent for future upstream projects and thereby affects the geopolitical balance between Egypt and Ethiopia.

As ISIS has scattered from the conventional battlespace in Syria, the focus has shifted to other parts of the country. The army of al-Assad, backed by Iran and Russia, have confined the rebel militias to pockets all over the country. The most significant rebel concentration is near the city of Idlib, where Turkish-backed militias and Islamist groups are held up. The war has continued by these parameters, but it has taken a different form. Nearly all the opposition figures who started the anti-government movement are no longer around and goals for regime change have vanished as well. This new phase in the war has little to do with al-Assad, ideology, international law, or even Jihadist groups. Instead, every belligerent wants a piece of influence in Syria, which effectively means the dismemberment of the state.

In historic relation, Egypt has dominated the Nile River. In fact, it’s history, culture and national identity derives from the existence of the river. However, as a downstream nation, Egypt’s share of water is being challenged by upstream Ethiopia, which seeks to exploit its geographic virtue by the construction of hydroelectric power plants. Yet, the dispute over the Nile is not a recent occurrence. In fact, the historic struggle over water security in the Nile has shaped a distinct rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt.

The nations surrounding the North Sea have some of the best standards of living and they consistently score the highest in education, health care, equality, GDP per capita, etc. These are all commendable performances, but Northwestern Europe has been doing well for centuries and the region has contributed more to Western culture than is generally acknowledged. This premise sits at the heart of The Edge of the World: A Cultural History of the North Sea and the Transformation of Europe by Michael Pye, which reveals how the region transformed from an impoverished outpost to the focal point of civilization.

Amid all the media outlets about fake news, it is easy to get carried away with sensationalist stories that are designed to inflame passions. However, fake news is not a recent phenomenon. In fact, it is as old as civilization and it has its roots in the mainstream distribution of the printing press.

As technologies progressed in the 20th century, new devices and platforms of communication entered the mainstream. The media transformed from partisan propaganda to a business model to close-enough impartial reporting. This transition, however, also presented governments with new instruments to shape yellow journalism to deliberately mislead audiences.

Saudi Arabia announced plans to construct a new megacity in the northwestern corner of the country by the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba. The ambitious project will cost about 500 billion USD and seeks to link to neighbouring Egypt and Jordan. Besides its economic feasibility, the proximity of the project could lead to Saudi Arabia’s recognition of Israel. Suffice to say, a project of this magnitude is not without its geo-economic challenges.

Fake news, propaganda and questions about the credibility of information continue to cloud political and cultural developments that are shaping our world. Although fake news has always existed in one form or another, the current hype serves as a red herring that hides the deep political dysfunction in societies in the post-truth environment.

Located between West and East, the Republic of Turkey links Europe to the Middle East and the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. The country also controls two maritime chokepoints and holds significant economic, military and cultural influence throughout the region. However, the union between the country’s capital-rich cosmopolitan western provinces and the underprivileged conservative eastern regions has shaped a duality in the geopolitical mindset of Turkey.

In the 1950s, the KGB destroyed a state of the art invention for fear of the chaos it could have on the Soviet Union. The young engineer who had designed it, Vladimir Fridkin, had not created a deadly virus or a nuclear bomb. What the KGB feared was a photocopier that allowed one to make copies of articles from foreign journals and enabled the free flow of information. This anecdote sounds insane today. Yet, for Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, the authors of The Red Web: The Struggle Between Russia's Digital Dictators and the New Online Revolutionaries, the fate of Fridkin’s photocopier is an indication of the mentality that drives the Kremlin’s crackdown on the internet.

In preparation for the Russian presidential election this month, Putin has promised to address the country’s economic grievances in his next term. However, how he plans to implement reforms is yet to be determined as two rival groups are working on conflicting roadmaps.

While most news outlets are focused on the Kremlin’s involvement in the presidential election of the United States, the Russian public is preparing to choose its own head of state. The country’s largest poll predicts that Putin will win with about 70 percent of the vote, but policymakers are already thinking beyond election day. As we explained in the previous report, Putin has promised to implement economic reforms in his next term. However, what is less explored are the upcoming security changes that will shape the balance of power within Russia’s security apparatus.

A great deal of geopolitics is fixated on land and sea in the context of security. It reveals how geography, demography, economy, natural resources and technology determines the political interaction between individual nations. Today, the biggest militaries in the world are in an arms race towards a new type of weapon that can pass through most defenses and thereby can reshape the present interplay between great powers.

For over half a century, starting with the Partial Test Ban Treaty in 1963, a series of legally binding arms control regimes prevented further proliferation of nuclear weapons and restricted the existing stockpiles. However, under the weight of geopolitical events, nearly all agreements have come to a stop, and may completely collapse in the near future.

From the ancient Greco-Persian hostilities in the Mediterranean to the submarine tactics of the Cold War, Sea Power: The History and Geopolitics of the World's Oceans by retired four-star US Navy Admiral James Stavridis tells the story of the seas in past and present civilizations. It is a thoroughly fascinating look at the intersection of geopolitics and the world's largest bodies of water.

In the first known fatal accident involving an autonomous vehicle, a car from Uber's self-driving test program struck and killed a pedestrian on March 19. The accident highlights concerns over safety regulations and it could alter the behaviour of designers, lawmakers and public opinion, which could contribute to the delay in the development of automated technology. However, the mainstream adoption of autonomous vehicles is inevitable, and it will profoundly change the workplace, transportation and society as a whole.

At a time when much of the West is distracted by faltering economic integration, renewed protectionism, and short-term policies, China is connecting with the outside world through a series of long-term economic investments. The project, known as the Belt and Road initiative, spans 68 countries through several land corridors and maritime routes. It covers about 65 percent of the world's population, which equals 40 percent of the global GDP. It is nothing less than the most ambitious geo-economic project in recent history, and it seeks to revive the ancient Silk Road.

The deep state sounds like the stuff of conspiracies. It implies that there is a secret powerful group that has its own agenda and undermines the policies of elected leaders and politicians. Most people take unconditional standpoints, claiming that it’s either fiction or fact. The truth is more complicated. The deep state exists, but it’s not as thrilling or malevolent as the concept indicates.

War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft by Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris explores the role of financial assets in modern geopolitics. The title of the book is also a play on the famous adage by Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz who once stated that war is the continuation of politics by other means. With this in mind, the book reveals geo-economics for what it is, an extension of geopolitics that seeks to maximize capacities through asymmetrical economic means.

A group of influential Thai officials is promoting the construction of a long-envisioned megaproject, known as the Thai Canal. If built, it would transform the regional maritime dynamics and give Thailand a substantial stake in global trade. Yet, as ambitious as the project it, there are equally credible drawbacks that could reshape the geo-economic fortunes of Southeast Asia.

As a nation in the centre of the European continent, Germany and its immediate surrounding hold the densest concentration of wealth in the world. Its extensive navigable waterways and arable land give the country an edge in trade and commercial activities. Yet, for all its advantages, the country is utterly exposed to neighbouring powers. For the past two centuries, these conditions have determined the geopolitics of Germany.

As a robust power, Germany has played a profound role in history. Yet, the modern state of Germany only came into existence less than two centuries ago when a chain of events disrupted the stalemate in Europe. This revolutionary era was marked with innovation, conflict, political intrigue, social overhaul, and much more. All of which contributed to the unification of Germany.

President Trump pulled the plug on the nuclear deal with Iran on May 8th and claimed that Tehran had failed to comply with the obligations. Yet, since no tangible evidence was presented, the unilateral decision places Washington in violation of its obligations under the pact. But, regardless of who is right, the turn of events raises a lot of questions, and it remains to be seen what comes next.

Thousands of Palestinians attempted to cross the Israel-Gaza Strip border fence only to be met with live gunfire from the Israeli side. The deadly events left dozens of dead, but it also highlights just how much, and simultaneously how little, has changed over the years.

Good fences make good neighbours. This is not just a saying but an inescapable truth of the human condition. When the Berlin Wall was brought down, the idea of enforced separation was dismissed as something from the past. In practice, however, it is the exact opposite. Divided: Why We're Living in an Age of Walls by Tim Marshall explores how societies have responded to the changes brought by globalization and how each nation tries to maintain a sense of national identity.

The 20th century was one of the most violent and destructive periods in history. Millions upon millions had perished. At the centre of the hostility was Germany. Yet, over the course of the two world wars and the cold war, the government in Berlin underwent fundamental changes that continue to shape the behaviour and the geopolitical mindset of German policymakers.

Recent developments in East Asia have revived hopes that the two Korean states can set aside their differences and reconcile. In the past, such sentiment routinely deteriorated into political schemes, which is why all the previous diplomatic initiatives failed. Yet, regardless of the current the sincerity, how would the reunification of the Korean Peninsula work?

The demilitarized zone that runs across the Korean Peninsula seems like the outcome of the armed conflict that devastated the area in the 1950s. However, an in-depth examination of Korea’s modern history reveals how the peninsula was caught in a tug of war between regional and Western powers. Thereby, planting the seeds that would ultimately result in the division of the Korean nation into north and south.

Throughout its history, Poland has struggled against foreign incursions. As such, the extent of its power shifted enormously. In the 17th century, the country prevailed as a major power in Eastern Europe. Yet, by the end of the 18th century, it had completely disappeared from the map. Poland survived only in memory and language before it emerged again a century later. This experience of national disasters has shaped the Polish mindset with a sense of suspicion and anxiety. As such, policymakers in Warsaw are desperately searching for a global power that can guarantee the sovereignty of Poland. Subsequently, the security dilemma is also laying the groundwork for the country to emerge as a regional power.

The Prime Minister of Greece recently announced that he had reached a deal with his counterpart in Skopje, where the Republic of Macedonia would be renamed to the Republic of North Macedonia. In addition, the citizens of the country will be called, as before, Macedonians, while explicitly noting that they are not related to the ancient Macedonians. All these changes will be put to a referendum for Macedonian citizens in the autumn of 2018. For most outsiders, this name dispute seems trivial, for the locals, however, it is a matter of national identity.

In most Western outlets, Central Asia is often depicted as a distant world that is isolated from global affairs and is plagued by economic stagnation and political repression. Dictators Without Borders: Power and Money in Central Asia by Alexander Cooley and John Heathershaw dismantles that perception and reveals a region that is inherently connected with the world through corruption.

At the behest of the government in Stockholm, a 20-page brochure was sent to all households in Sweden in May 2018. The content of the pamphlet provides instructions to local citizens and what they can do in case of an armed conflict. To understand what Swedish policymakers are preparing for, we need to analyze the geopolitics of Sweden.

The mainland of Southeast Asia, historically known as Indochina, is home to a wide range of ethnicities that extend across a vast territory. Spread interchangeably are forests, mountains, valleys, rivers, deltas and coastlines. With such a divergent environment, the nations of Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam have distinctly different identities, beliefs and geopolitical needs.

After being elected into another term in June 2018, President Erdogan of Turkey is getting ready to construct an ambitious new waterway on the European side of Istanbul. The canal will be the third megaproject in the city after a new continent-crossing bridge was completed in 2016 and the world’s largest airport will be finished by the end of the year. Yet, the government’s vision for a new canal also carries extensive geo-economic consequences for the Black Sea domain.

President Trump handed Prime Minister Netanyahu a significant win when he recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and relocated the US Embassy there. Now, Israeli lobbying groups in Washington are pushing Republican lawmakers for the recognition of Israel’s claim over the Golan Heights. Such an act would mark the most significant validation of forcefully acquired land since 1945, and it would have a dramatic impact on the interpretation of international law.

What does the Athenian expedition to Sicily, Alexander the Great at the Indus, Julius Caesar's crossing the Rubicon, Hitler at the border of Russia and Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam have in common? On Grand Strategy by John Lewis Gaddis explains how all these leaders were blinded by their past tactical achievements and deceived themselves that they had the capabilities to meet their expectations, and so ended up humiliated, defeated or dead.

Maritime Southeast Asia is a cluster of small and large islands that sit between the Indian and Pacific oceans. Historically part of the East Indies and contemporary known as the Malay Archipelago, the area has some of the world’s highest levels of biodiversity for marine ecosystems. Here, coral, fish and molluscs thrive. Yet, perhaps the prevailing characteristic is the maritime-based cultures that are represented by the nations of the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Singapore. All of this makes for a unique archipelagic neighbourhood with its own distinct geopolitical needs.

Korea’s long and troubled history is largely defined by its geographic position between larger powers. The struggle to find a balance between Japan and China repeatedly facilitated a tug of war that enabled internal division and invited foreign intervention in the Korean Peninsula.

Southeast Asia is home to a wide range of ethnolinguistic groups that extend across a vast territory. Spread interchangeably are forests, mountains, valleys, rivers, deltas, coastlines, islands and archipelagos. With such a divergent environment, the nations of Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore and the Philippines, have distinctly different identities, beliefs and geopolitical needs.

With the lira plunging to new depths before partly rectifying itself, Turkey has seen better days. Yet, what’s happening to the lira is not restricted to Turkey. Global credit levels, especially US dollar-denominated debts, are at an all-time high. Access to cheap credit has facilitated a new crisis in many emerging markets. Now, those reckless monetary policies are starting to show their cracks.

Some believe that poverty and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa is the result of the centuries of exploitation by foreign powers. Others blame it on poor African leadership and argue that the outside world has provided substantial aid in recent decades. The Looting Machine: Warlords, Tycoons, Smugglers and the Systematic Theft of Africa’s Wealth by Tom Burgis dismisses these beliefs and reveals a web of corporate structures that holds both African leaders as well as powerful international institutions complicit in the modern plunder of Africa.

Known for its output of hydrocarbon resources and for its close proximity to some of the world’s busiest maritime traffic lanes, as well as the cradle of the Islamic faith, Saudi Arabia has a monumental impact on the political events in the Middle East. Yet, the kingdom also faces several inherent domestic and foreign complications that shape its geopolitical behaviour.

Having one foot in Europe and one foot in the Middle-East, Turkey’s geographical and political position in the world means it has a particularly important role to play in the stability of world politics. The country’s steady lean towards the Islamic faith is a story that started roughly a century ago when Turkey was revolutionised under the leadership of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.

By virtue of physical location, Russia inherits a resolute role in global geopolitics. This explains why the United States and Russia cannot stop fighting because they have so many disputes in the latter’s periphery. Last War of the World-Island - Geopolitics of Contemporary Russia by Alexander Dugin expands on this notion and frames the American-Russian rivalry as a struggle between the sea and land power for global dominance.

Throughout its history, merchants and missionaries from India introduced new beliefs and ideas in Southeast Asia, leaving a significant mark in the region. Today, India’s influence remains visible in the ancient relics and Hindu temples as well as the diaspora communities that are spread throughout the area. As part of his Act East Policy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to revive that tradition in response to Beijing’s geopolitical surge.

History is full of recordings of conflicts, while peace is considered poor reading. The European Union, since its inception, has contributed to a stalemate in Europe, which has largely kept the peace in the continent. In fact, the bloc was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012 for contributing to the “advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe.” But how did a continent that fought two world wars come to a truce known as the Long Peace?

With the Belt and Road initiative in full swing, China is working to develop and integrate its interior into the global economy. Thereby, bypassing maritime chokepoints and reducing its economic disparity at the same time. Yet, many have come to question China’s intentions, and believe that Beijing uses debt, as part of its checkbook diplomacy, to advance its regional interests.

As of September 2018, the national debt of the United States surpassed 21,4 trillion USD, while the budget deficit is at its highest number since 2012. And, even though there are a lot of unwarranted claims and misconceptions pinned to this topic, many are concerned that the national debt is reaching unsustainable levels. To get to the bottom of this, we must subtract fact from fiction and go over the fundamentals of America’s sovereign debt.

When the government can grant or restrict a reporter’s access to places and people, is even possible to write real stories? What if the authorities provide press releases with photos, phone numbers and descriptions, are such prepackaged stories even objective? What about the news agencies themselves, are they public servants or are they in the business of news since their revenues depend on advertisers? Questions like these sit at the heart of People Like Us: Misrepresenting the Middle East by Joris Luyendijk, as it delivers a compelling narrative of the gap between image and reality in the Middle East.

America's national debt is the largest binding obligation of the federal government. At an outstanding sum of 21,4 trillion USD, it’s also the largest sovereign debt in the world and greater than what the country produces in a whole year. No single event facilitated this amount, and even though debt has been a part of American history since its foundation, nearly the entire net sum was only accumulated in the last three decades.

What began as a reaction to the jihadist activity in Mali in 2012 has steadily expanded across the belt of the Sahel region. In this semi-arid climate, just south of the Sahara, some 4,000 French troops are combatting jihadist forces in five African countries. Not since the colonial era has France shown this level of economic and military commitment in Africa. But, what exactly is this conflict about and why do the French feel the need to get involved.

The US budget deficit for the fiscal year 2018 hit 779 billion USD, which is 17 percent more than the year before. Much of the increase is pegged to Trump’s recent legislations. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office expects the federal deficit to eclipse 1 trillion USD in 2020, which would generate about 9,5 trillion USD in debt over the coming decade. Yet, as substantial as this sounds, the United States is neither at risk of default nor can it continue to spend with impunity.

For nearly three centuries, numerous tribes and empires sought to subjugate the Arabian Peninsula. During that relentless conflict for power, the House of Saud was defeated, expelled from their homeland, and essentially hinged on the brink of annihilation. Yet, fuelled by religious fervour, the Saudis eventually bested their rivals and established the modern Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

For over a millennium, the domain between East and West, linking the Pacific with Europe through land and sea, served as the world’s central nervous system. In The Silk Roads: A New History of the World, Peter Frankopan recalibrates our understanding of history and describes how the Silk Road network facilitated the movement of people, goods, ideas, conflict, disease, etc, and essentially drafted Western civilization as we know it.

Last weekend, paramilitary forces of the Russian FSB intercepted two small Ukrainian naval vessels and a tugboat attempting to pass through the Strait of Kerch. The Ukrainian vessels were navigating from the Black Sea port city of Odessa to Mariupol, on the coast of the Sea of Azov when the incident occurred. Now, with at least three injured Ukrainian sailors, both parties are pointing the finger at each other. Yet, whoever is right, the naval standoff illustrates the importance of the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov.

LONDON - Artificial Intelligence, often called simply AI, is one of today’s most important technological trends. It is a rapidly-evolving domain with the potential to disrupt virtually all economic sectors. But while the attention is usually focused on its impact on business, AI can also have a major impact on society and politics, both at the domestic and at the international level.

German chancellor Angela Merkel announced in late October that she will not stand for re-election after her Christian Democratic Union party, or CDU for short, was polled with an all-time low approval rating. Merkel still plans to remain as the head of state until the end of her term in 2021, but her political exit raises a lot of question for Europe’s largest economy.

In recent weeks, the French government has come under fire over increases in living costs. Hundreds of thousands of protesters calling themselves the yellow vests have taken to the streets of the capital, sometimes resulting in violence and destruction. And, even though the government has agreed to raise wages and reduce various taxes, the unrest has largely persisted with implications for the presidency of Macron.