CaspianReport

Yesterday morning, three masked gunmen stormed the headquarters of the French satire magazine Charlie Hebdo. The attackers forced one of the cartoonists to open the door with a security code. They then headed straight towards the paper’s editor, Stephane Charbonnier, better known as Charb, who was in an editorial staff meeting. During the encounter the gunmen killed Charb, his bodyguard, and many more journalists. Minutes later the attackers left the building and shot a police officer and escaped with a vehicle. In the end, ten journalists and two police officers were killed, resulting in the deadliest terrorist attack on French soil in fifty years. Representatives of ISIS quickly praised the massacre as an act of revenge for the magazine’s insults against Islam and the Prophet Muhammed. But a closer look at the long term implications reveals a more complex and profound motive that is meant to shake Europe and radicalize European muslims.

In a previous CaspianReport, released back in 2011, we argued about the likelihood of a civil war in Yemen and that the Iranian back Houthi rebellion would trigger a new front in the ongoing Saudi-Iranian cold war. The other fronts being Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Now that Yemen is once again on the brink of civil war, and facing a Zaidi-Shia led uprising in the North and an al-Qaeda led uprising in the South, all the while being bombed by neighboring Arab states, let’s take a step back and look at the origins of the current crisis.

After 42 hours overtime, the Iran nuclear negotiations with the United States, Russia, China, France, Great Britain and Germany reached a framework deal in Lausanne, Switzerland. In return for lifting the sanctions, which means more than $110 billion a year relief for Tehran and a return to the global economic market, Iran will be significantly constrained in its nuclear programme. This is the framework agreement, meaning the formal deal will be signed before July 1st. Over the next three months, the technical details will have to be worked out, but what does the Iranian nuclear deal really mean?

The core religious allegory of Islam starts with Muhammad’s revelations in the caves and ends with the death of the fourth successor Ali, almost forty years later. The allegory is analogous to the Last Supper, the Crucifixion, and the Resurrection of Jesus Christ in Christianity. During Muhammad’s lifetime, his community gained control over the Arabian Peninsula. Though he passed away in 632, Islam’s story continued through his four closest followers: Abu Bakr, Umar, Uthman, and Ali, who together formed the Rashidun, or Rightly Guided One’s. Together, they established the first Islamic state, the Caliphate. In just thirty years, the Rashidun Caliphate conquered all of Persia, Egypt, Mesopotamia, the Levant, and even parts of the Byzantine Empire in Anatolia.

Just a few days ago King Salman of Saudi Arabia passed a series of royal decrees meant to smoothen the transition of power from the second-generation princes to the third-generation princes. Salman will be the last king of the second generation as he replaced his half-brother Muqrin bin Abdulaziz with Muhammad bin Nayef as Crown Prince. Furthermore, Salman’s favourite son, Muhammad bin Salman, was appointed as the new Deputy Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. These and a dozen more cabinet and governmental changes were publicly announced in the early morning hours of 29th April. At first glance, most of the decisions make sense, as the country was bound to shift from the second generation to the third generation. However a closer look at the events reveals that underneath the reforms, King Salman had ulterior motives, including the strengthening of his own clan, the next generation of Sudairis.

In the first part of the History of Islam, we discussed the succession to Muhammad and the birth of the Caliphate under the leadership of Abu Bakr. The formation of the Caliphate was not easy, and the newly elected Caliph faced a secessionist rebellion throughout Arabia. He overcame the rebellion, but his reign lasted for only two years. Before Abu Bakr’s death, however, he nominated his trusted military advisor Umar as a candidate for the Caliph. The ‘Ummah’ and the council of elders were stunned because Abu Bakr and Umar could not have been more different.

The general elections in Turkey finished with the Justice and Development Party, or the AKP for short, suffering decisive losses as they no longer form the single dominant party in the Turkish parliament. The AKP is still the largest party with 40.8% of the votes and 258 seats, but that is 18 seats too few to govern alone. The game changer here is the victory of the Kurdish People’s Democratic Party, or the HDP, which is a left-wing party led by Selahattin Demirtas. His party won 13.1% of the votes and 80 seats, which is above the Turkish parliamentary threshold. Thus, for the first time, the long-repressed Kurdish minority will be properly represented in the parliament.

In the first and second parts of the History of Islam, we talked about the establishment of the Caliphate by the First Caliph, Abu Bakr, and the expansion and implementation of reforms by the Second Caliph, Umar. Before Umar’s death, a committee known as the ‘Shura’ was established with the purpose of selecting a new Caliph and seeking the approval of the Muslim community, known as the ‘Ummah’. In the next election, the two leading candidates were Uthman and Ali. In the end, Uthman was elected as the Third Caliph. Even though Uthman was, in his own words, “not an innovator”, he certainly was a reformer.

Nigeria is located in western Africa on the Gulf of Guinea. The country’s size is comparable to that of Venezuela, or twice the size of the US state of California. But unlike either of these comparisons, Nigeria’s population level is many times higher. With about 178 million people, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous in the world. However, not all Nigerians speak the same language or share the same ethnicity.

At the request of al-Assad’s government, Russia has started an air strike campaign over Syria. Moscow stated that they would target extremist groups such as ISIS, but so far the air strikes have mainly targeted NATO-supported rebels. Even though most of the mainstream media has put a negative spin on the Russian air strikes, one thing must be put into perspective: None of the external actors involved in the Syrian conflict are in it for the sake of the Syrian people, democracy or human rights. This is a geopolitical conflict, not a soap opera.

In the previous three episodes of the History of Islam, we described the first three Caliphs and their characteristics. We also discussed their most notable accomplishments and the ways in which they ruled the Caliphate. Abu Bakr, the wise community leader and the founder of the Caliphate, had died from a fever. Umar, the military thinker and the founder of Islamic jurisprudence, was stabbed in the stomach by a mentally disturbed Sassanid slave. And Uthman, the merchant, and the builder, was beaten to death in his study room by fellow Muslims. It was then Ali’s turn as Caliph, making him the fourth to take the title.

In the last couple of months, the media headlines have been dominated by the presence of refugees in major European cities. The rush of refugees to Europe has caused considerable diplomatic and domestic turmoil. Refugees from Syria, followed by African and Balkan nations, form the vast majority of the people seeking asylum. In most cases, the refugees pay large sums of money for a chance to reach Europe, and in many cases it’s a life risking gamble. The massive arrival of asylum seekers in Europe is not something new. Migration in and out of Europe has taken shape throughout history. However, the current human flow into Europe is different from historic migrations, and such unprecedented events carry with them economic and political repercussions that are shaking the European countries to their constitutional foundations. The most recognizable difference is the fact that the refugees are mostly from culturally distinct countries such as Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

On Friday evening, November 13th, seven, now identified, armed gunmen and suicide bombers attacked several targets in Paris, killing 130 civilians and wounding hundreds more. The attack was carried out by Muslim extremists, and ISIS quickly claimed responsibility for the attacks. However, five of the attackers were French citizens and two more were citizens of neighboring Belgium. The attacks have deeply shocked the French and European societies. So far it seems like the French response is limited to an increase in air strikes against ISIS controlled territories. At least, that is what it seems like on the surface. However, just like the 2005 London bombings and the 2008 Mumbai Attacks, there will be domestic and international consequences. As we delve deeper into this subject it will become clear that the Paris Attacks will have a profound long lasting impact on the European societies and institutions.

A few weeks ago, a Russian Su-24 fighter-bomber was shot by the Turkish Armed Forces near the border of Syria. It was the first time a NATO member admitted to shooting down a Russian warplane since the end of the Cold War. What exactly happened is disputed by the Turkish and Russian governments. Both sides have conflicting stories with many disputed technical details. However, what is clear is that a Russian warplane was shot down one way or another. Equally important, the Turkish General Staff acknowledged direct responsibility for shooting down the aircraft.