CaspianReport

I am Malala recounts the early life of Malala Yousafzai, an eighteen-year-old Pakistani girl who speaks out for the country’s women and the right to education. Her book begins in 2012, with a group of teenage girls and teachers who were chatting on their bus ride from school. The midterm finals had just finished, and in their joy, the girls started singing a Pashto song. As the school bus drove along the country road and approached the town of Mingora, two men halted the bus and then suddenly entered the vehicle. One of them pulled out a gun and asked: “Which one of you is Malala?” None of the girls spoke, some out of loyalty and others out of fear. But unintentionally, their eyes turned to Malala. That’s how the gunmen knew she was the target. The man lifted his weapon, and at point-blank range, fired four shots at Malala. The first went through her left eye socket and out under her left shoulder. As she slumped forward, the other three bullets hit the girls next to her. As both men f

In 2016, we will see the continuation of conflicts and rivalries in the Middle East. More countries will get entangled in the Syrian Civil War, but we will also see a reemerging Turkey. The Saudi-Iranian rivalry will reach new heights and Israel will have to rethink its geopolitical position. Further North in Russia, the low oil prices will force Moscow to push hard for economic reforms. Financial changes will also occur in Europe, where many nations will struggle with their economies, which in turn will inspire the rise of nationalism. However, there are also exceptions such as Switzerland, where are important referendum could trigger a financial revolution. In this prognosis, we will go over the most likely diplomatic, economic and military outcomes for Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia in 2016. In Part 2, the prognosis will continue in East Asia, Africa, and the Americas.

In 2016, the territorial disputes in the South China Sea will continue to remain the focus of attention in Asia. An important decision by the international tribunal is expected, one that will greatly influence the dispute. China’s economic slowdown will lead to lower metal prices, which will have enormous consequences for commodity producing sectors. Furthermore in India, the country will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the world but the security issues with neighboring Pakistan will continue. Security will also play a big role in Libya, where the lack of a government will turn the country into a gateway for foreign fighters and arms headed to Central Africa. Aside this, a number of African nations will stand on the brink of civil war. But not everything is bad, in South America, Colombia is well on its way to peacefully settle a 50-year insurgency. And the new government of Argentina will begin addressing its financial problems through negotiations. Further North, the A

In the previous episodes of the History of Islam, we recounted the various developments that have shaped the core of Islamic identity. In episode one, we explained the foundation of the Caliphate by Caliph Abu Bakr. Following this, we described the territorial expansions and the origins of Islamic jurisprudence by Calip Umar. In the third episode, we recounted the evolution of the Islamic civilization by Caliph Uthman. And in the previous episode, we explained how the Islamic civil war between Caliph Ali and Governor Muawiyah laid the groundwork for the schism between Sunni and Shia Islam. Following Ali’s victory in al-Nahrawan against the radical Khawarij group. The latter planned the assassination of the Caliph. Two years later, a Kharijite follower stabbed Ali with a poisoned dagger. Ali passed away in a few days and his death left behind a power vacuum and a fragmented state.

On Saudi Arabia: Its People, Past, Religion, Fault Lines - and Future by Karen Elliott House explores the many dynamic perspectives of life in the Saudi kingdom. House, who is a former publisher of The Wall Street Journal, spent about thirty years traveling to the country, meeting with hundreds of princes, politicians, activists and conservatives. In her book, On Saudi Arabia, she discloses her experiences. Through observation, extensive interviews and even anecdotes, House analysis, what she refers to as, the Saudi labyrinth. The thing is that Saudi Arabia is not a modern totalitarian republic like the communist North Korea but rather a dictatorial regime with a fanatically conservative society. Of all the nations in the world, the Saudi kingdom is perhaps the most distinct country from the Western world. On Saudi Arabia reveals how this mysterious state, a top producer of oil and Muslim extremists attempts to balance oil revenues, the religious establishment and the disenfranchisemen

Roughly 33 million Iranians cast their votes on 26th February in two crucial elections: one to elect a new parliament and the other for a top clerical body, the Assembly of Experts. These are the first elections in Iran since the deal over the country’s nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions. And, as Western investors are beginning to return to Iran, a key issue in these elections is the economy. Iranians have high hopes for an improvement in daily life. That progress will come as Iran opens up to the outside world, just not as fast as expected. And even though President Rouhani and his allies made significant strategic gains in Iranian politics, the President and his allies still have a number of tasks ahead.

As abruptly as Russia began its military campaign in Syria nearly six months ago, President Putin has ordered the withdrawal of Russian military forces from the country. The President announced that the Russian military had accomplished their mission in Syria and that the estimated 3.000 to 6.000 Russian troops are to withdraw from the country. The process will take about 5 months. However, Putin is not completely abandoning al-Assad. The S-400 surface-to-air missile system, a number of military advisers and as many as two battalions or about 800 servicemen will remain in Syria, spread over two locations. Meaning, Russian forces will remain operational in the Bassel al-Assad air base in Latakia and the naval facility in Tartus. This unexpected move has many wondering why. Especially since for months, the Russian forces, backed by warplanes, missiles, and artillery pieces, have bolstered the al-Assad government. The opposition forces have been pushed back, and ISIS is weaker than it was

Years of talks between Washington and Havana resulted in Obama’s historic visit to Cuba on March 21st. Obama became the first US President to visit Cuba in 88 years. The normalization effort between the two countries began in December 2014 and was preceded by months of secret negotiations, facilitated by Pope Francis and largely hosted by Canada. Even though Obama’s visit to Cuba and his meeting with Raúl Castro marks a milestone in ending the five decades stretch of hostility between the countries, geopolitical relations are not restored with merely a handshake and a smile. However, presidential power only goes so far. For the full normalization of relations, Washington will have to lift its embargo against Cuba. And, Havana will have to conduct substantial financial and political reforms. Whether it’s the opposition in the US Congress or the Cuban military elite, both countries still have many obstacles to overcome.

On Sunday, April 3rd, a number of global media networks published articles based on the confidential leaked documents from the Panama-based law firm, Mossack Fonseca. The leak includes roughly 11.5 million documents or 2.6 terabytes of data. By comparison, the 2010 Wikileaks Cablegate was roughly 1.7 gigabyte, and the previous 2013 offshore leaks were 260 gigabytes. In short, the data leak, now known as the Panama Papers, is the largest in size. The Panama Papers reveal how some of the world’s most influential figures have used offshore bank accounts to avoid taxes or conceal their wealth. The list of people includes international politicians such as the Presidents Mauricio Macri, Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister David Cameron and even celebrities like Lionel Messi. What’s more is that the Panama Papers expose the level of corruption in the global financial system. In this report, we will explain what the Panama Papers are. We will also explore some of the geopolitical related records a

Azerbaijani and Armenian forces clashed on April 2nd along the line of contact in what is now referred to as the Four-Day War. Dozens on both sides were killed. The skirmish marks the most violent incident since the implementation of the 1994 Bishkek Protocol and its ceasefire agreement. In any conflict, truth is the first causality, and the fog of war makes it hard to sort out truth from propaganda. The situation in the Karabakh is especially murky because there are so few objective observers. To put things into perspective, the OSCE monitoring mission in Eastern Ukraine has nearly 700 monitors. Even in neighboring conflict areas such as South Ossetia and Abkhazia, there are 200 monitors. However, in Karabakh, the OSCE only has a handful of observers. Meaning, any event in the Karabakh conflict is subject to the nationalist propaganda by the authorities in Yerevan and Baku.

Australia is one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Its GDP per capita stands at 65.400 USD and ranks 14th worldwide. At the same time, it’s also one the most isolated countries in the world. And, it is this distance that gives the impression that Australia is security-wise invulnerable and irrelevant to the global geopolitical arena. Yet, for most of its history, Australia has participated in numerous military confrontations. Its soldiers have fought in Europe, Africa, and Asia. With the exception of World War II, none of these conflicts posed a genuine threat to the security of Australia. This begs the question, why has a wealthy and secure nation as Australia fought in so many wars? What has driven its leaders to send their bravest and brightest to far away frontlines? What has shaped the mindset of the Australian geopolitics? In this report, we explore this questions as well as the history of Australia. We can start by stating that the traditional perception of Australia as

For the past two decades, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has dominated the geopolitics of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Last month, in April 2016, a four-day-long skirmish erupted, which cost the lives of at least 200 soldiers. In a previous CaspianReport, we explained the geopolitical and military status quo. We also recounted how the conflict is a potential hot spot that could involve regional players such as Russia and Turkey. Given the geopolitical significance of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the lack of proper materials on the subject, in this report, we will go over the origins of the conflict.

More than thirty years after the Islamic revolution, Iran’s internal politics are still bewildering the mainstream media. For many, it’s still not even clear what form of government Iran has. The country is a republic, with elected institutions such as a parliament. Yet it’s also a theocracy, with a number of religious institutions. In theory, the mixture of divine rule and popular will could work. However, in practice, the system has transformed Iran into a kleptocracy with many factions fighting for power and influence at the expense of the wider population. In this report, we will delve into Iran’s version of the game of thrones and explained the country’s internal political power struggle.

In a historic nationwide referendum, nearly 52 percent of British voters chose to leave the European Union. Both the UK and the EU are now entering uncharted territories. For the first time in history, the EU will soon lose a member. Evidently, this will trigger a chain of events for the European bloc as well as the United Kingdom and far beyond. In this report, we will explain the outcome of the Brexit.

Turkish military personnel were deployed in numerous strategic checkpoints in Istanbul and Ankara on the night of July 15th. Tanks and armored vehicles have been seen near the military headquarters in Ankara and an explosion has taken place at the Turkish parliament building. In Istanbul, military blockades have been set up at the bridges over the Bosporus and civilians trying to cross have been fired upon. In both cities, gunfire and explosions have been reported and a fighter jet shooting down a helicopter has been sighted by witnesses. There are also reports of clashes between military units and police forces. Furthermore, the coup leaders have imposed martial law. In defiance of this ongoing coup, Erdogan has called upon citizens to come into the streets and protest. Much has happened in a very short span of time. In this report, we will look into the ongoing coup in Turkey and why it’s unlikely to succeed.

With the 2016 US presidential elections closing in, the debates have become increasingly precarious. The gap between honesty and dishonesty is vague. Both Clinton and Trump have been caught lying, concealing and spinning information in the duration of their presidential campaigns. Why Leaders Lie: The Truth About Lying in International Politics by John J. Mearsheimer provides a fresh new perspective on the reasons why politicians tend to deceive the public. The book was published back in 2011, so it doesn’t cover the current presidential elections. It does, however, provide a unique explanation on why and how politicians lie, conceal or spin information. The subject of political lies is not only extremely interesting but its relevance is as important as ever.

For many, Vladimir Putin is a strong decisive leader. An example to be emulated. Sometimes he seems nearly untouchable. Yet, strong leaders leave behind big shoes to fill. Currently, no one in Russia is qualified to replace Putin. In fact, the President himself may no longer be up to the challenge. Russian politics is often compared to a dogfight under a carpet. An outsider only hears the growling and when only one dog comes from beneath it’s obvious who won. At the moment, that’s exactly what’s happening in Russia. There is no mention of this in the mainstream media, but for the past few years, the elites have been in a rigorous power play. With the low energy prices and Western sanctions, resources are shrinking. The oligarchs and regional officials are fighting for scraps of power. Putin may be a brilliant politician but the Russia he has created is the new Sick Man of Europe.

Australia’s most distinct feature is its isolation. It’s a country, a nation, and a continent all in one. Its location and wealth give the impression that the country is secure and prosperous. Yet, the circumstances the country finds itself portray an entirely different picture. In this analysis, we will go over the modern geopolitical challenges of Australia.

The military coup in Turkey is over and President Recep Erdogan’s crackdown is in full swing. As of this writing, the government has already detained over 10.000 servicemen, among them more than 100 generals and admirals. Another 8.000 police officers have been sacked and nearly 3.000 judges and prosecutors have been dismissed. Furthermore, roughly 15.000 officials from the educational ministry and about 23.000 teachers have lost their jobs. The list is still expanding but thus far Erdogan’s purge has affected nearly 60.000 people. In Turkey, there is relief that the military takeover failed. However, there is also a surreal dark side as uncertainty looms over the country. In this report we will look at the consequences of the failed coup and what Erdogan’s purge will mean for Turkey and the region.

A series of violent protests is disrupting the stability in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir. What started out as the death of one militant commander has since escalated into a violent standoff between Indian security forces and local residents. As of the writing of this article, more than 60 people have been killed and over 7.000 civilians and 4.000 security personnel have been injured. In some places, the crisis has compelled the local authorities to impose a curfew. In other areas, telecommunications have been cut off, and many schools, colleges, and businesses have been closed. In this report, we will go over the historic context of the Kashmir conflict and address the underlying motives for the current crisis.

India’s economic growth in 2015 was a staggering 7.3 percent increase in GDP. Yet, the country cannot create enough jobs to lift its people from poverty. It has a labor force of 502 million people, yet 49 percent are employed in the agricultural sector, which only contributes to 14 percent of the country’s economy. These are the contradictions that Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to change under the Make in India project. This initiative seeks to transform India into a manufacturing hub for automobiles, electronic systems, and pharmaceuticals, as well as a hub for hydrocarbon and nuclear energy. This colossal task is the greatest economic reform in modern Indian history. It seeks to unleash the country’s true potential. Yet, change comes at a price. In this report, we will analyze the Make in India initiative and explain what obstacles the Prime Minister faces and how he intends to overcome them.

Under the Make in India initiative, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched the country’s greatest economic reform. In Part 1 of the Make in India report, we went over the labor laws, land acquisition legislation as well as the tax regimes, which Modi needs to adjust to increase foreign direct investment in India. Yet, economies run on energy. As India’s expands its economy, it will have to seek for more sources of energy. Moreover, an equally daunting challenge awaits the country’s agricultural and services sectors. In Part 2 of the Make in India report, we will go over these crucial components which will determine the success of the economic reforms.

Most people are caught up in globalization. They see economic progress and modernization as the most important tools shaping international affairs. Yet, when a revolution, an instance of political turmoil, or a sudden event erupts, the appreciation of geography helps to put the events into context. Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall is all about geopolitics. It describes how geography determines the limits of progress, cooperation, and political behavior. By looking at the past, present, and future, Marshall seeks to elevate the importance of geography within interactions of nations, ideologies, civilizations, economies, and militaries. So, if you’re puzzled about why Putin is obsessed with Ukraine, or why Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands, or why the Arab Spring started in Tunisia, or even why the United States is an exceptional superpower, the answers are all in this book.

The Arctic covers roughly 14 million square kilometers of water and solid ice. It’s almost the size of Antarctica. For most of its part, the region is inhospitable. In the summer, the weather can rise above the melting point, yet, in the winter, it can plunge down to minus 45 degrees Celsius. This situation, however, is not to last. In the coming decades, climate change will make the Arctic passages and resources become more accessible. Given the abundance of resources and critical trade routes, it should come as no surprise that the Arctic will turn into a new geopolitical flashpoint.

The Arctic is rich in hydrocarbon and mineral resources. The region also holds two essential trade passages that connect East Asia, North America, and Europe. In other words, there’s tremendous potential in the Arctic and climate change is forcing nations to reevaluate their national interests. In a previous report, we went over the region’s territorial claims, legal proceedings, and the fact that every Arctic nation has made claims in the Northern Hemisphere. The ongoing disputes are legally complicated, but no other country is as well prepared to dominate the Arctic as Russia.

Almost a month has passed since American voters chose their next president. Trump’s victory in the presidential elections represents a shift in American politics. However, to assume that Trump's campaign promises will dictate his actions would be a misconception. By filtering out the emotions as well as the political restrictions, we can calculate what the President can and cannot do. This methodology brings forth a certain degree of predictability for 2017. Now, Trump’s presidency will have global implications. We will go over these changes. However, in this episode we will focus on Trump’s legitimacy, the legal system, Obamacare, climate change, and more. In the second episode, we’ll talk about immigration, trade, and the relations between the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

Trump’s presidency will have profound economic and political consequences for North America. In the previous episode, we talked about the president’s bipartisan approval, the legal system, healthcare, climate change, and more. In Part 2 of the North American analysis for 2017, we will go over the remaining topics such as trade, immigration, and Washington’s relationship with neighbouring Canada and Mexico.