CaspianReport

Late at night on January 19, 1990, about 26.000 Soviet troops stormed Baku, the capital of Soviet Azerbaijan. The troops were supported by tanks and other armored vehicles. They blocked all the major roads and then airborne troops were dropped down on the city from airplanes. This was followed by a naval blockade. The Soviet army was acting pursuant to a state of emergency declared by the USSR Supreme Soviet Presidium, signed by President Gorbachev. However it was only disclosed to the public only after many citizens lay wounded or dead in the streets, hospitals and morgues of Baku. More than 130 people were killed and between 700 and 800 civilians were wounded. Hundreds of people were detained. All of this happened exactly 22 years ago on January 20th 1990. This crackdown is better known as Black January. The massacre was intended as a warning to other independence and freedom movements, not only in Azerbaijan, but in the other Republics of the Soviet Union.

Despite the fact that Iran sits on some of the largest reserves of crude oil, Iran still import a third of its gasoline to keep up with domestic demand. This has to do with Iran's lack of oil refineries and growing population. So sanctions on gasoline is the Achilles' heel of Iran, and it could have devastating effects on the Iranian government. Any form of "crippling sanctions" against Iran will target Iran's gasoline imports. The only loophole is Russia. Moscow pursues its own interests and that is to keep the U.S. bogged down in the Middle East while Russia reasserts its influence in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Unless the U.S. can make concrete concession on Eurasia geopolitics, Russia will keep using Iran as a bargaining chip.

The Arab Spring is not yet over; it has evolved and it's much more complex than last year. Every nation and country is different and every state dealt differently with the unrest. In Tunisia and Egypt the leaders were quick to step down. Libya experienced a civil war, while the president of Yemen is leaving through a negotiated deal. The unrest in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is not over yet and Syria has become a geopolitical battlefield. To make matters even more complicated the Iranians are exploiting religion in the region to expand their sphere of influence.

In the last 500 years the borders of Iran have remained more or less the same. This is because of the topographical barriers. The country is surrounded by thee mountainous borders and a coastline in the south. The center of the country is an uninhabitable wasteland. Iran's rough terrain brought forth the 16th century metaphor, "The walls of Iran". And despite Iran's growing regional influence, the country remains vulnerable from the inside. Although the country is also known as Persia, almost half of Iran's total population is actually non-Persian. Many of Iran's strategic regions are populated by ethnic minorities such as the Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Balochis and Arabs.

The modern day Iranian sphere of influence is actually very similar to the process that happened two millenia ago, when the Persian Empire was founded. In the ancient times the Persian armies conquered, Babylon, the capital of Mesopotamia. Only after this conquest were the Persians able to exert their power throughout the region. And with no regional power to oppose them, the Persians quickly established an empire that stretched from the Hindu Kush to the Sinai and it all started with Babylon. Names have changes but strategy remains the same and with the fall of Saddam and his Ba'ath Party, Tehran was quick to fill the gap of power. This triggered Iran's new sphere of influence.

Over night from February 25 to 26, 1992, Armenian armed forces with support of the Russian 366th regiment stormed Khojaly town firing by artillery, missiles and tanks. Town was blocked from three sides and people tried to escape to safe direction. But that was a trap. Near Nakhchivanik village the Armenians opened fire on unarmed people. Hundreds of children, women, elderly, frostbitten and weaken in the deep snow and mountain passes became the victims of brutality of Armenians. As a result 613 people were killed, among them: 63 children, 106 women, 70 elderly. It was the most notorious massacre in the Nagorno-Karabakh War.

As Al Assad's inner circle is cracking, so does Iran's proxy network in the Levant. The crisis in Syria has created the oppertunity for some Iranian proxies to distance themselfs from Tehran. Not wanting to end up on the bad side of a Sunni-led Syria, many pro-Iranian militant organizations are shifting towards the mainstream Sunni Arab consensus. This shift includes Hezbollah, Hamas and others which have formed the basis of Iran's proxy network in the Levant. As this new reality unfolds the geopolitics of the Levant changes along with it.

In the 14th century a Muslim historian named Ibn Khaldun wrote about the pattern of history. Farmers would build irrigation systems supporting villages and towns. Later some warrior would bring these towns under his rule and form a united political entity, like a kingdom or an empire. Then a tribe of nomads would come along and conquer the kingdom, seize all the holdings and settle in their place and further expand the new empire. As time went by the nomads would assimilate and become soft city dwellers. Exactly the kind of people they had conquered and at this point another tribe of nomads would come along and conquer them and take their empire.

From the 15th-16th century the Ottoman Empire was at its peak. Its realm streched from North Africa to Egypt to the Arabian Peninsula. Its holdings included the Levant, Mesopotamia, the Caucasus, the Crimea, and the Balkans all the way to the gates of Vienna. It was by far the largest empire in its time, and it was ahead of its competition in terms of science, production, military and culture. Yet a few centuries later this once mighty empire became the Sick Man of Europe.