Perun

The global economic system is built on trade, and to trade, you need ships and safe, efficient routes. Often, that mean travelling through maritime choke points, where geography squeezes trade through a concentrated point. In the Red Sea, one of those chokepoints has come under pressure as a result of attacks by the Houthi movement based in Yemen, driving hundreds of vessels to divert to much longer routes around Africa. Now, US and Houthi forces have exchanged fire, with several Houthi boats reportedly being destroyed attempting to board a container ship. And beyond the risk of this particular campaign, the sight of relatively cheap attacks reshaping the contours of global trade may serve as a warning to decision makers elsewhere. After all, if technology and techniques can be applied in the Red Sea, why not at other maritime chokepoints around the world? On that cheery note, welcome to 2024.

For nearly two years now, I've been using this channel to explore questions relating to wars, defence strategy and economics. I've been able to do so because of the unwavering support from all of you. So today, as a way to welcome 2024, I'm answer your questions for a change: What are the modern roles for tactical nuclear weapons? How have Special Operations Forces been used in Ukraine? Would I rather fight a cruiser sized duck or a thousand duck sized cruisers? What can I tell you about the Perun audience? And how did this "Perun" bloke end up talking about Defence Economics anyway? Hope you enjoy this special episode, and we'll be back to regular content next week.

Whatever its equipment, a military is nothing without its people. As many militaries struggle with recruitment, the armies in Ukraine grow older, and countries in Asia grapple with the implications of ageing populations, it's becoming clear that getting the right people may be as much of a challenge for forces as getting the right technology. So today, we look at that age old problem. How do militaries get people, why are so many struggling - and what might they be able to do about it?

Earlier this month, Bloomberg carried an article which included claims about corruption in the PRC's Rocket Force . Those claims have gotten plenty of attention – so today, I want to look into corruption and anti-corruption campaigns in the PRC, some of the claims from the article, how we might interpret them, and what all this might mean for the PLA and the region

Even as global attention is pulled in a dozen different directions, the fighting in Ukraine continues amidst a winter cold that provides better conditions than the mud seasons. . Russia's offensive has focused on Avidiivka, but fighting has been hard at multiple places along the front. In this episode, we look at the recent fighting, from Avidiivka to the great Patriot missile road trip, examine the available loss data, look into the question of casualties and mobilisation (including some Sergei Shoigu math) and close out by touching on the wider sustainability issues probably deserve further discussion.

When we talk about the future of competition for air-superiority, often we focus on the most high-profile platform - the current and future generation fighter aircraft. With cutting edge sensors and systems, new generation fighters are likely to give their pilots access to a level of information and performance beyond what even current fifth generation platforms can offer. But situational awareness doesn't have the same value if it can't be connected to a weapon system capable enough to leverage it - which the air-to-air missile comes in. In the past decade, multiple nations have fielded new missiles that challenge or eclipse existing US missiles like the AIM-120. In this episode we're going to look at some of those systems, ask how the US fell behind in the range game, and ask what the plan might be to equip the USAF with tools to reclaim its previous advantage in the air. Note, this video is a continuation of the series on next-generation air combat.

The modernisation of the Chinese PLA has represented a dramatic shift in the balance of military power in Asia. Over the course of several decades, the PLA has shifted from a primarily ground combat force with a large stock of outdated equipment, to one that is increasingly capable of projecting power and holding targets at risk over longer and longer distances. Having discussed the PRC's military budget, industry, rocket force and other critical drivers, today I finally want to give an overview of the PLA's changing capabilities and ask the question - what kind of force has China's modernisation process created, and how may it continue to evolve going forward?

While technology has continued to evolve, most weapon systems modern militaries use operate on old principles. A artillery piece is a world removed from a Napoleonic cannon, but the idea of detonating a charge behind a projectile in a tube in order to propel it in the direction of something you don't like - that remains the same. For decades, Governments have also been investing in trying to develop systems that operate in very different ways - including directed energy weapons like lasers and High Powered Microwave weapons (HPM). And for decades - very little emerged in terms of deployable, destructive systems. But on a battlefield increasingly dominated by cheap and precise threats such as loitering munitions, FPV drones or naval kamikaze drones, there is more pressure than ever for forces to leverage recent technological developments to turn concepts into functional, deployable tools for their armed forces. In this episode, we look at the concepts behind Directed Energy Weapons,

While far more asymmetric than the fighting on the ground, the air-war in Ukraine has demonstrated many of the same features - Adaptation, attrition, and the importance of resupply and sustainment. Going into 2024, it's worth asking how two years of full-scale fighting have impacted the Russian and Ukrainian air-forces and how the fighting might be expected to evolve in 2024 as Ukraine converts to Western platforms as Russia pushes to derive more benefit from its significant advantage in airframes and munitions like glide-bombs. And to address those questions, today I’m joined by Professor Justin Bronk (https://www.rusi.org/people/bronk), author of a number of notable reports on the air war in Ukraine, including the November 2022 piece linked below. Obviously, all views expressed by Professor Bronk are his own – and likewise for those views I express over the course of this interview.

It's long been understood that the war in Ukraine will likely be a long and hard one, determined as much by production, supply, economics and political will as well as the skill and sacrifice of those fighting it. But despite that realisation, the transition of the war into its third year of full-scale fighting still represents a bitter milestone, and while the front has seen some movements recently and the year is likely to see a number of offensive actions - at a strategic level, the lines are moving at a glacial pace, and often only when the supply situation allows. By popular vote - today we're going to look at where the war in Ukraine stands in 2024. We'll explore ammunition production and supply, the economic health of the countries involved, some of the trends in terms of the way the fighting is evolving and put together what predictions we can for the coming months.

For decades, the US Navy has been the world's most powerful ocean going force. It operates some of the most successful warship designs in recent history. It also operates some with more...complex...stories. In this episode we look at US efforts to develop a new generation of surface warships, including the LCS and Zumwalt Destroyers, and ask both what went wrong with these incredibly expensive projects and what we might be able to learn from them.

For decades, the USSR and then the Russian Federation competed with the US to dominate the global arms market. In 2023, according to SIPRI, Russia didn't even make the top five list of exporters. In this episode, I look at the evolution of Russian arms exports in 2022 and 2023, examine the drivers, and look at some of the nations (like France) that have taken market share as Russia drops.

Designing a military can be hard. Designing a military when your primary adversary is Russia is harder...and doing it with a defence budget that could fit within the scope of a single cost overrun on a Pentagon project is something else entirely. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are commonly referred to as the Baltic States, from 2004 until Finland's accession to the organisation, sat relatively isolated on the Alliance's Eastern flank. Today, we look at how these states perceive their environment, design their forces to counter the perceived threat - and why they have been some of the strongest advocates in both the EU and NATO for extensive support for Ukraine and a decisive defeat for the Russian Federation.

Since 2022, demand on the global arms market has spiked, and the race has been on to secure contracts & market share. Two weeks ago we looked at the collapse of Russia's position in the market. Today, we tell the rest of the story, looking at the winners and losers so far - and emerging trends.

Drones have been a major feature of the fighting in Ukraine since well before the 2022 invasion - but they have been set apart from other major systems by just how quickly the technology and tactics behind them have evolved. In this episode, I look at why drones in Ukraine are becoming more dangerous, at the same time as they are becoming much, much more common.

During many major conflicts of the 20th century, the ability of the USA to pump out enormous amounts of defence materiel was a critical factor. In the lead up to WW2 the US would declare itself the 'arsenal of democracy' But with the end of the Cold War came reductions and consolidation - and after the events of early 2022 the US, like many other nations, found itself eager to re-expand its defence industries to meet the demands of the war in Ukraine and changing global security environment. That provided the context for the release of a defence industry strategy this year -- and today, we're going to talk about it.

For decades, much of the conflict between Iran and Israel has played out indirectly via proxies or through deniable or covert actions. This month however, things changed dramatically. Following an airstrike in Syria that killed an Iranian General, Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israeli targets. What followed was a major, multinational air defence operation and, it seems, a potential small scale Israeli response. In this episode I look at the background to the Iranian strike, the observations we can make about the attack and defensive operations, and what it might mean for the region.

In early 2022, the US quickly emerged as one of Ukraine's most important military suppliers, supporting Kyiv with everything from artillery to armour & millions of rounds of artillery ammunition. In late 2023, that vital flow of supplies began to stall as debate in Congress continued. And as supplies ran short, Russian forces took advantage and ground the front forward in several places. Now, the US has passed a new package and the flow of supplies is resuming. In this video, we look at that package, examine its contents and ask what impact it might have as Ukraine reportedly faces some of its hardest defensive battles since 2022.

The Arctic is pretty unique. It's a place where allies like the US and Canada feud, Russia is still arguably the dominant power and the United States can casually announce a claim to an area more than twice the size of California. But with access to Arctic resources as a draw - this unique setting is likely to see far more competition in the coming years. So let's chill a bit, and talk Arctic competition. Note a correction - In this presentation I refer to Norway handing over presidency of the Arctic Council to Russia in 2021. Norway currently holds the presidency, Russia received it from Iceland in 2021.

When you fight a war against a backdrop of shortages, emerging threats and Slavic ingenuity, perhaps it's not surprising that you end up with a bunch of systems being used that aren't exactly factory standard. One of the first images of the Russian invasion were tanks equipped with add-on overhead cages, but in 2024 the most extreme examples of anti-drone protection now include vehicles with entire structures built over them to provide near all round protection. In this episode, I look at vehicle modification in Ukraine, examine some of the main classes of modification and ad-hoc vehicles we've seen and ask why they exist, and what sort of military value they might have.

In some respects, advanced submarines are a kind final boss of sorts in the world of naval warfare. Stealthy and well armed, for many nations these resource intensive platforms have underpinned naval strategy and nuclear deterrence for years. Investments in submarines and their associated industrial bases have been on the rise in countries like the USA and PRC for years, and we've seen new powers either obtain or seek to obtain nuclear submarine capability. But much of the value of the submarine comes from the assumption that submerging brings stealth. And with new or predicted technological developments, some are predicting that in coming years or decades, that assumption may no longer hold true. So today, we look at submarines, some of the technologies that might threaten them, and ask what the future might bring for these underwater hunters.

The last few weeks have arguably been a period of change for the war in Ukraine, both on and off the battlefield. In Moscow, long serving Defence Minister Shoigu has been removed from that post, while a number of Russian Generals and senior figures have been arrested or otherwise removed. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia has escalated the previously quiet Kharkiv front, edging slightly closer to Ukraine's second city. In this episode, I want to unpack some of the current political and economic context and ask what may be next for a Russia war effort that is now 'under new management'

While the push for next generation fighters probably wins more public and internet attention, the drive to field new bomber aircraft with sixth generation features is also pushing the limits of what aircraft designers can accomplish. And with the first flights of the B-21 Raider now documented, it may also be a race far closer to the finish line. In this episode I look at the three main members of the strategic bomber club, their next generation bomber programs, and ask both what these systems might mean, and why they seem likely to serve alongside much older, legacy platforms.

For both military and civilian applications, launching satellites into orbit has long been both useful and incredibly expensive. But over the last decade, the costs to put payload into orbit have shrunk dramatically, driven by launchers like the SpaceX Falcon 9 & Falcon Heavy while the number of satellites in orbit has exploded. And now, with tests proceeding with the two-stage Starship super-heavy, it may be that even cheaper access to space is on the horizon. In this episode we explore why demand for orbital assets is increasing, how the US retook top spot in the Space Race, and what systems like Starship might mean for the future if they perform as advertised.

For all the changes we've seen in weapon systems, the role of humans as the key decision makers when it comes to the use of force has remained. But what happens when machines develop to the point where they are increasingly able to perceive the battlefield and make that decision for themselves. As the AI rush plays out, compute becomes cheaper and battlefield pressures play out, nations may face increasing pressure to unleash autonomous systems from their human handlers. So in this episode we discuss the potential of these systems, some of the advantages and pressures that might drive their development...and what the prospect for international regulation might be before the killer robots start to take the field in significant numbers.

Discussions of escalation management in Ukraine are usually framed from a Western perspective and the incremental provision of aid by Ukraine's allies. But as the war carries on Moscow faces escalation dilemmas of its own. It has an imperative to escalate in ways that place as much pressure on Ukraine as possible, but often attempts to do so prompt responses from Ukraine's allies that put Russia in a worse place than when it started. Today, we look at four recent Russian lines of escalation and effort in Ukraine, from the Kharkiv offensive to the new partnership agreement with North Korea. We ask what the logic might have been behind those moves, what the effect has been, and ask the question....will they improve Russia's position or leave it at greater risk than before.

The war in Ukraine has long become one of attrition and endurance, where the status of the competing forces is arguably more important than individual pieces of terrain changing hands. In this piece, leveraging the work of various people and sources, we look at what we can determine about the status of Russian equipment stocks and active vehicle fleets in 2024, and try to project potential paths forward and establish a baseline for comparing against Ukrainian forces in a coming episode.

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (AKA North Korea) is perhaps the strangest military power we've ever had a detailed look at on this channel from a defence economic perspective. It's a nation of extremes - building nuclear weapons and ICBMs while requiring food aid, and fielding one of the world's largest active duty militaries with a population not that different from the likes of Australia. With the recent signing of a partnership agreement between Pyongyang and Moscow, I thought it was finally time for a more detailed look at the DPRK and the Korean People's army. Be aware, this is going to be a slightly weird one.

Two weeks ago, we looked at estimates of Russian equipment losses in Ukraine and the mounting issues of storage depletion and equipment quality. (Russian Equipment Losses & Reserves (2024)) However, in a war like this, equipment losses take on most of their strategic relevance when they're considered in relative terms. That is, who is going to start feeling the pain from materiel shortages first, and how may it shape the wider war. So, as promised, today we look at Ukrainian equipment loss estimates, discuss the potential impact of changing equipment quality, and dive a little deeper into a few key equipment categories and the changing nature of the force