Mini Lectures In Probability

How to look at the risks of Covid vaccines, why they much lower than you think. We never had a larger monitored sample size in history and it allows events that on average show up later to manifest themselves very early on.

Violence is from Extremistan, hence requires some more sophisticated tools since LLN works slowly. We see how Pinker's thesis is bogus. We look at ways to integrate the factual unreliability of historical accounts. We look at transformations to analyze violence using power law tools since the worst case is bounded at contemporary population level.

What do you do when the data looks like it is powerlaw distributed over a broad range, but cannot be technically a power law? We use a dual distribution and transport parameters between one and another.

A first, very introductory presentation of fragility as linked to both nonlinearity and dislike of variations. Antifragility is almost the opposite, limited to a specific range of variations.