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Sezon 2011
The island of Bahrain is where Iranian and Saudi interests intersect. The tiny country is ruled by a Sunni monarchy with a Shiite majority population. If the situation in Bahrain gets
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The island of Bahrain is where Iranian and Saudi interests intersect. The tiny country is ruled by a Sunni monarchy with a Shiite majority population. If the situation in Bahrain gets out of control, the U.S. could lose a base for its 5th Fleet and the possibility for withdrawal from Iraq. Shia minorities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia could follow with their own protests. Once that happens it could affect the world's most important oil-producing region. It is for these reasons why tiny Bahrain could emerge as a flashpoint in the Persian Gulf
Mubarak is out of office; the military regime remains intact and has dramatically increased its power. But there is a big difference between the reality and interpretation by the world
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Mubarak is out of office; the military regime remains intact and has dramatically increased its power. But there is a big difference between the reality and interpretation by the world media. Contrary to what many people believe the military and Mubarak were not on the same team. Mubarak's intention to appoint his son as his successor, was an attempt to transform the military regime into a monarchy. When the demonstrations started the military saw an opportunity and welcomed it.
A key principle that appears to be driving the uprisings in the Middle East is kleptocracy; a government run by personal wealth and corruption. Mubarak, Gaddafi and the royal family of
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A key principle that appears to be driving the uprisings in the Middle East is kleptocracy; a government run by personal wealth and corruption. Mubarak, Gaddafi and the royal family of Bahrain, are all examples of kleptocratic rulers. But the revolts also have broader geopolitical implications. These kinds of moments of chaos and anarchy do not come often. As history shows, somebody always has to fill the void that is left behind.
The problems between the United States and Iran are based on geopolitics and not on ideology. In the end Iran only poses a limited geopolitical threat to U.S. interests. On the side,
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The problems between the United States and Iran are based on geopolitics and not on ideology. In the end Iran only poses a limited geopolitical threat to U.S. interests. On the side, Russia is a serious threat to global American interests and even American soil, just think of the Russian nuclear arsenal. Essentially the problems between the U.S. and Russia vastly outweight the problems between U.S. and Iran. An alliance is always formed out of fear from a 3rd party, that fear which Iran and the U.S. share is a re-emerging Russia.
An explosion was reported at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. As the earthquake damaged the ability of the control rods to regulate the fuel, there is speculation that
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An explosion was reported at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. As the earthquake damaged the ability of the control rods to regulate the fuel, there is speculation that a nuclear meltdown is possible. At this point, events in Japan bear many similarities to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. However as long as the reactor core, pressure and radiation, remains intact, the melted fuel can be dealt with. And with a bit of luck the wind direction could carry the radioactive fallout into the sea.
In the last couple years Gaddafi used the African continent to raise his international PR campaign. He has built up a network with other countries in Africa. Most of these relations are
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In the last couple years Gaddafi used the African continent to raise his international PR campaign. He has built up a network with other countries in Africa. Most of these relations are based on commercial or political interests and are limited to the Sahel region. So although Libya has a certain degree of influence on some African countries. It's not a dominant influence but still the absence of Libyan involvement could have some consequences.
Special thanks to the director, Murad Ibragimbekov. It is in this region were the first petroleum industry was founded in 1848. Within a few years the technology in extracting oil was
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Special thanks to the director, Murad Ibragimbekov. It is in this region were the first petroleum industry was founded in 1848. Within a few years the technology in extracting oil was revolutionized. At the turn of the 20th century, the city of Baku accounted for half of the world's production and dominated international markets. This is their legacy.
Saudi Arabia has sent more than a thousand soldiers to Bahrain. More troops are expected to arrive from the United Arab Emirates. This indicates that the military and police forces of
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Saudi Arabia has sent more than a thousand soldiers to Bahrain. More troops are expected to arrive from the United Arab Emirates. This indicates that the military and police forces of Bahrain can no longer guarantee to contain the unrest. It also shows that the gulf Arab countries are not only concerned about domestic unrest but are also concerned for unrest in other gulf states. Because unrest can quickly spread throughout the Arabian Peninsula. So the Arab countries will cooperate and intervene in each other's countries to keep the region stable. As these troops pour into Bahrain it is likely that the king of Bahrain, will enforce martial law to contain the unrest.
What are the ups and downs of hydrocarbon, nuclear and space solar based energy? Hydrocarbon power is expensive, pollutive and has many geopolitical chokepoints. With nuclear energy
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What are the ups and downs of hydrocarbon, nuclear and space solar based energy? Hydrocarbon power is expensive, pollutive and has many geopolitical chokepoints. With nuclear energy there is always a small chance for a global disaster. The best alternative is renewable energy, especially space solar energy. In space there are no clouds in space, there is no day and night cycle and there is plenty of room. By placing solar collectors above the atmosphere, it will be at least 14 times more effective then land based solar collectors.
The leadership of Yemen has declared a state of emergency after a bloody crackdown on protesters in the capital Sanaa. The opposition in Yemen is based on unemployed youth, regular
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The leadership of Yemen has declared a state of emergency after a bloody crackdown on protesters in the capital Sanaa. The opposition in Yemen is based on unemployed youth, regular laborers, students, Islamists, socialists, Salafists and even some tribesmen with political ambitions. Thereby the opposition is very fractured but united in their common goal to oust president Ali Abdullah Saleh from office. However Saleh has deep roots in the regime. The intelligence apparatus, political and business elite are all dominated by Saleh's family members, also known as the Sanhan tribe.
The Saudis are fighting a proxy war with Iran in Bahrain. While also trying to contain the Shia protests in the eastern parts of the country. Now with Iranian backing a third front of
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The Saudis are fighting a proxy war with Iran in Bahrain. While also trying to contain the Shia protests in the eastern parts of the country. Now with Iranian backing a third front of Shia uprising opens in the Arabian Peninsula. Yemen, with a Shia population who make up 45% of the population, could get drawn into a civil war. Add to this equation the various power ambitious tribal leaders who see a 'window of opportunity' amidst the chaos. With this many faction fighting each other, Yemen is in serious crisis. And it is exactly these kinds of moments that Al-Qaeda has the most opportunities.
The death of Osama bin Laden is the greatest achievement of the CIA of the past decade. The next question is whether his death has symbolic or tactical value? The symbolic value is
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The death of Osama bin Laden is the greatest achievement of the CIA of the past decade. The next question is whether his death has symbolic or tactical value? The symbolic value is obvious. But unlike other military organizations. Al-Quada is not a hierarchy. Bin Laden was just one of the several leaders of the organization, that's why his death will have little tactical meaning. Aside from al-Quada, this event will also have geopolitical implications. And it will influence American and Pakistani relations. It could also have consequences for the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Russia is dealing with a major demographic crisis. Low birth rates, high death rates and an increase of mortality rate is taking its toll on the Russian population. Not to mention the
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Russia is dealing with a major demographic crisis. Low birth rates, high death rates and an increase of mortality rate is taking its toll on the Russian population. Not to mention the increase of divorces, abortions, alcoholism, narcotics and communicable diseases. Forecasts predicted that the Russian population will decrease to around 125 million by 2025. And possibly even going below 100 million by 2050. By 2020 Russia will lose 30% of its population, this could become a turningpoint in Russian history.
Osama bin Laden, world's most wanted man, was hiding in plain sight for almost six years in close vicinity to Pakistan´s main army training academy. Was Pakistan conspiring with al-Qaeda
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Osama bin Laden, world's most wanted man, was hiding in plain sight for almost six years in close vicinity to Pakistan´s main army training academy. Was Pakistan conspiring with al-Qaeda or had they genuinely overlooked the compound? If the Pakistani army was really unaware of Bin Laden's hiding place, than it was probably because finding Bin Laden was not a top priority. But if the Pakistani army did know about the compound, than they likely kept the civilian government in the dark. This highlights the internal struggle in Pakistan between the civilian Pakistani politicians and the military and security apparatus.
Pakistan is a county with internal struggle. On the one side you have Pakistani politicians and on the other side you have the military and security apparatus. But the country also has a
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Pakistan is a county with internal struggle. On the one side you have Pakistani politicians and on the other side you have the military and security apparatus. But the country also has a nuclear arsenal. Its also in a conflict with India over Kashmir. And it plays a central role in the war against terrorism. As a result, US policy towards Pakistan has been dominated by concerns for its stability. That's why Washington has always backed the Pakistani military's interventions in domestic politics. This was all at the expense of the Pakistani democratic institutions. Today Pakistan faces a crumbling economy and Taliban insurgency. More than half its population faces severe poverty, which fuels resentment against the government and feeds political instability. Without US assistance, Pakistan could become the world´s first nuclear-armed failed state.
The Israeli Arab conflict is the result of interactions of superpowers in the early 20th century. British and French strategic interests in the Middle East were related to the
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The Israeli Arab conflict is the result of interactions of superpowers in the early 20th century. British and French strategic interests in the Middle East were related to the Mediterranean trading route, which went from the Suez channel to Indian markets. But the presence of the Ottoman navy based in the Levant was a direct threat to British interests. So the British and the French decided to divide the Middle East into smaller entities and countries to make it impossible for the Ottoman Empire to control them all. A century later, the legacy of European colonization of the Arab world is reflected by its many ongoing conflicts
Unlike the United States, China has to contend with strong regional rivals. Just think of Japan, Russia, and India. Even the smaller neighbors are no pushovers: Taiwan, South Korea,
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Unlike the United States, China has to contend with strong regional rivals. Just think of Japan, Russia, and India. Even the smaller neighbors are no pushovers: Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam; they will put a lot of weight on the Chinese military and economic resources just to defend the Chinese territorial integrity. At best China will be an economic superpower and it will take place as one of the world's leading trading powers. But the economic and military resources of Beijing will always be stretched thin. It has to devote enormous amount of military resources just to defend its territorial integrity from its internal fragilities and external rivals.
The collapse of the Soviet Union triggered many ethnic conflicts throughout the Eastern Europe and Asia. One of the most horrific conflicts was the Nagorno-Karabakh War. Armenia with the
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The collapse of the Soviet Union triggered many ethnic conflicts throughout the Eastern Europe and Asia. One of the most horrific conflicts was the Nagorno-Karabakh War. Armenia with the support of Russia invaded neighboring Azerbaijan and occupied some 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory - known as Karabakh. The conflict claimed the lives of some 30.000 people and left more then a million people displaced in Azerbaijan. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan suffered heavy losses. This report contains unique footages of mountainous warfare from the perspective of the soldiers - the Lenkeran Battalion.
he death of the former Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, marks the next phase for the National Transitional Council of Libya, forming a transitional government. However this will
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he death of the former Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, marks the next phase for the National Transitional Council of Libya, forming a transitional government. However this will be a very hard to accomplish because Libya is a country with various factions. To make things worse, these factions are now armed to the teeth and they all want a significant stake in the new government. Its very difficult to reach a peaceful agreement when the stakes are so high and when all factions are heavily armed. The Transitional Council is unlikely to simply take control where Gaddafi left off.
Once the US finishes the withdrawal process from Iraq and Afghanistan, they will have to deal with a complete different Russia then before 2001. Aside this, German-Russian relations are
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Once the US finishes the withdrawal process from Iraq and Afghanistan, they will have to deal with a complete different Russia then before 2001. Aside this, German-Russian relations are expanding and so too will the Polish-American relations. The alliances left behind from the cold war era will no longer function in the 21st century. Cold War institutions such as NATO and the IMF will diminish. In the next ten years these new realities will sink in and we will see many new conflicts arise.
The European Union is an ambitious concept but it was broken by the financial crisis of 2008. The financial crisis can be summed up as the aftershock effect of the Iraqi war and cheap
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The European Union is an ambitious concept but it was broken by the financial crisis of 2008. The financial crisis can be summed up as the aftershock effect of the Iraqi war and cheap money produced by the Federal Reserve, and mismanagement by international banks. But the financial crisis was also a test for the European Union, a test they failed. The crisis redefined the boundaries of the state and corporations. Aside economic consequences the financial crisis also had political consequences
The Financial Crisis of 2008 was an economic bubble that reached its limits and exploded. A bubble is simply where prices continue to rise beyond the true value. People buy, simply
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The Financial Crisis of 2008 was an economic bubble that reached its limits and exploded. A bubble is simply where prices continue to rise beyond the true value. People buy, simply because they believe everybody else is going to buy. A bubble is based on speculation, expectation and ignorance. When these three elements collide it creates a crisis, which is often defined by irrational financial exuberance. The causes of the economic crisis of 2008 are related to the Bush administration's attempt to finance the war in Iraq with, basically, inflation. The Federal Reserve cooperated by financing the Iraqi war, by essentially lending money to the American state.
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